The Bitcoin Fix THE BITCOIN FIX / SuperForecaster
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Arthur Hayes

34.9% weighted
Total predictions
26
Resolved
17
Weighted accuracy
34.9%
Simple accuracy
35.3%

Resolved 17 predictions

Prediction Spec Result
Ethereum will reach $5,000–$10,000 by end of 2025.
interview
2
Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 in March 2025 and will ascend to $250,000 by year-end 2025, conditional on the Fed shifting from QT to QE for Treasuries.
newsletter
If: Federal Reserve shifts from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing for Treasury securities
3
'I bet BTC hits $110,000 before it retests $76,500.'
twitter
3
'I think we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year.'
newsletter
3
Seven DeSci (decentralised science) tokens — BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, NEURON — will outperform the broader crypto market in 2025.
newsletter
1
Crypto markets will peak in mid-to-late March 2025, driven by dollar liquidity injections of up to $612 billion from US Treasury spending and declining Reverse Repo Facility. Advised: 'sell in the late stages of Q1, then chill.'
newsletter
2
Bitcoin will reach $200,000 before March 2026, driven by the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program, which Hayes described as 'QE in disguise.'
newsletter
If: Fed's RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) program injects sufficient liquidity
3
Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by year-end 2024 in the context of Trump election victory enabling credit expansion.
newsletter
3
'BTC is heavy, I'm gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.'
twitter
3
Bitcoin will reach $1 million by end of 2025 as his 'base case' scenario after US debt ceiling resolution floods markets with liquidity.
newsletter
If: US debt ceiling resolved and Treasury liquidity gushes into market in early 2025
3
Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by late 2024. 'The next stop for bitcoin is $100,000.' Conditional on US Treasury net-issuing at least $301 billion in T-bills by year-end.
newsletter
If: US Treasury net-issues at least $301 billion in T-bills by year-end 2024
3
Bitcoin will slump around the April 20 2024 halving due to consensus bullish sentiment. The period April 15–May 1 will be 'precarious for risky assets' due to US tax payments draining dollar liquidity.
newsletter
1
Spot Bitcoin ETF approval will trigger an immediate sell-the-news correction. Bitcoin will correct 20–30% upon ETF launch as leveraged long positions flush out.
newsletter
2
Bitcoin will correct 20–30% after spot Bitcoin ETF approval, falling toward $30,000–$35,000 in March 2024 as the Fed ends the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and removes dollar liquidity.
newsletter
2
Bitcoin will reach $70,000 by June or July 2024 following spot ETF approvals and the halving, then regain all-time high by end of 2024.
newsletter
3
Ethereum will reach $5,000 by end of Q1 2023 if: (1) the Fed pivots from hawkish to accommodative policy; (2) the Ethereum Merge succeeds.
newsletter
If: Fed pivot to accommodative policy AND successful Ethereum Merge
3
Bitcoin is a buy at $20,000 and Ethereum is a buy at $1,300 — levels corresponding to the 2017/18 bull market all-time highs as structural support.
newsletter
3

Pending 8 predictions

Prediction Spec Status
Hyperliquid is going to 150 this year
youtube
3 pending
I think Hyperliquid's going to be one [to hit 40 billion market cap].
youtube
3 pending
it's probably going even lower [Siren].
youtube
1 pending
I believe most altcoins will never hit a new all-time high.
youtube
1 pending
I think we're going lower.
youtube
1 pending
when someone tells you something as stupid as $10,000 XRP, you'll realize it's mathematically impossible
youtube
3 pending
Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028. 'It's time to go long everything.' Mechanism: Trump-era credit expansion and money printing.
newsletter
3 pending
Ethereum will reach $100,000 in the current bull cycle — a surge of over 4,600% from then-current levels (~$2,100).
newsletter
2 pending

Other 1 prediction

Prediction Status
If USD/JPY falls to 100 (38% move), the Nasdaq would drop to ~12,600 and the Nikkei to ~25,365. The yen carry trade unwind poses severe market dislocation risk. expired