Jeff Snider

The job market is rolling over — the slide into recession is inevitable; full-time employment stagnation masked by part-time gains

A deep recession is looming in 2023 — eurodollar futures and yield curve signals point to significant economic contraction

The eurodollar system signals deflation ahead — inflation will not prove persistent; CPI will return toward 2% or below as monetary system contraction resumes

The inverted yield curve (2022) will produce a recession within 18 months — this signal has never failed in modern history

"A recession will worsen the bear market and the Fed is powerless to stop it. We are headed into a prolonged, painful recession in late 2022."

The long-end inversion of the yield curve (10s30s inverted March 2022) does indicate that recession risks are actually elevated — a recession is likely within 12 months.

"I agree with Janet Yellen and Jay Powell — inflation is transitory. It is a supply shock, not monetary inflation. The bond market confirms: this will not turn into sustained price increases."

"Why deflation is the story, not inflation." — the bond market is telling us the 2021 CPI spike is not monetary inflation but a transitory supply shock; deflation will follow once supply disruptions normalize.

"The US dollar will not collapse under QE — the dollar remains in structural shortage globally through the eurodollar system. DXY will not experience a sustained crash despite the Fed's balance sheet expansion."

"QE is not money printing. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing does not create money in the real economy and will not cause sustained inflation or crash the US dollar."

"The dollar disease" — structural weakness in the eurodollar system well predates coronavirus and will persist regardless of Fed intervention. The global dollar shortage will reassert.

"Deflation, not inflation, is the real risk coming out of the COVID recession. We are nowhere close to done with deflationary pressures. The Fed's response will not be sufficient to generate sustained inflation."

The inverted US Treasury yield curve (2s10s inverted August 2019) confirms the signal for contraction in the intermediate term — the US economy is heading for recession.

The globally synchronized growth of 2017 has already transitioned into a globally synchronized downturn — outright recession in key parts of the world, possibly including the US, by 2019.

Just don't expect it to produce a broader positive effect on spending.

if stressed workers don't spend their tax refunds, the circle doesn't get closed and the economy doesn't pick up, even if the government is throwing around the big bucks to do so.

The aggregate revolving credit balance slows to a crawl and then can even reverse the more jobs that get lost.

there's going to be some additional money spent in the short run, but it'll be nowhere near enough to change the trajectory of the economy.

if oil prices go back down um sometime this month, then we're more likely than not to get out of this without without the worst case scenario [recession].

we expect oil prices to soar in the short run but then collapse not all that far into the summertime

there is going to be an impairment on the supply because of damage that's happened to infrastructure... maybe we're looking at 6 months or a year at least until some of the damage is repaired

it does seem highly likely that it [Strait of Hormuz] opens up and the US and Israel don't get get boats through there.

if Trump announces tomorrow that he's got a ceasefire because [oil] prices are going to plunge.

$90 per barrel somewhere around there. That's that's the target range [at which an oil shock triggers recession].

now that garbage lending is going to produce some degree of losses.

if more and more banks behave the same way, then it turns off the bank money from these shadow banks and it forces them to start selling assets.

if this continues to go in the same way stock prices are going to go lower.

Do they [stablecoins] have a chance at upending the Euro dollar? >> No, not really. I think it's an extension of the Euro dollar system because it offers some of the same types of um same type of framework as the Euro dollar does

if stable coins can pay yield, that'll take deposits away from the banking sector... [Interviewer] doesn't it destroy the entire banking model? >> It does, but is that necessarily a bad thing?

Walmart wants you to use stable coin and the banks want stable coins... it seems like it's going to go that way. Uh, the banks will push it.

the stable coin revolution goes even further and it starts to move away from the banking sector. ... we start eliminating some of those functions because they're really superfluous.

I think in the future, and I'm I think it's typically after 20 I think 2030 2040 we see medium exchange start happening in Bitcoin and maybe after 2050 we really start to see that option.

as a medium of exchange, I don't think it [Bitcoin] gets there because of what I just said before. It's too rigid. ... right now, the price is too volatile. But even if you if you get rid of that volatility, it's just difficult and cumbersome to use when it has fixed supply.

we're going to blow way past the deficit this year

interest rates are going to go down and stay there for a very long time

inflation disappears... an economic system that can't produce even positive inflation

asset prices coming down... in the short run

the Republicans are going to get wiped out of the midterms no matter what happens

Wars is coming in, I think, next month

you add some energy price pressure onto employers, it doesn't get into an inflationary spiral. It gets into an unemployment spiral.

short-term prices going up. ... long-term I I see deflation

Food prices are going to are going to go up a lot again, just like 2022.

Is JP Morgan going to be the only one who does this or are there other banks that are going to start revaluing collateral and rewriting their collateral rules that then starts to really cut off the shadow bankers from their emergency liquidity... and I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You know they're going to be first and then people will follow.

They've got liquidity pressure from investors withdrawing funds, which is not going to change.

instead of a five-day work week, we have a 4-day work week with some people having a three-day work week

the direction of the unemployment rate? Oh, it's going to continue to rise.

what it leads to is not inflationary prices. It leads to shortages. It leads to bottlenecks

consumer prices are going to be ugly in the short run as oil prices translate directly into CPIs.

this cycle is going to be worse than 2008

central bankers that do hike rates, chances are, the chances are very likely they're going to end up turning around and going back down again relatively quickly.

The CPI for March is going to be ugly... We're going to see them extend into April.

what we're about to see is country after country reporting that there's a huge drop in retail sales.

the recovery is on ice now... the economic growth that we thought we were going to get is disappearing

the global labor market that's just going to continue to weaken as demand plunges.

central banks might panic into rate hikes, but they're going to be cutting after uh not too long.

profit margins are going to go negative

energy costs at the very least just just as a start are going to be elevated for a prolonged period of time.

Spending from the top 10% that's been driving 50% of spending is going to disappear

stocks all over the map surpassing correction levels heading further toward the dreaded bare market status.

the labor market is going to continue to be weak and and then you start thinking about businesses, they're not going to need to give out big raises

as we head into the next non-farm payroll report, we could see another negative print.

there's a good chance that the Europeans hike a couple of times before they have to turn around.

discretionary spending is going to drop and next thing you know, retail sales drop.

as long as margins stay compressed here and consumers don't come out and buy... then the inevitable response is there's going to be more layoffs.

the foreclosures are next. We're we're kind of going in that direction right now.

The historical bombing out process is three and a half to five years... the market peak was either 22 to 24... So then you can plug in three and a half to five years gives you an idea as far as the bottoming out process.

it's literally a 10 10 to 12 year window because because it takes that long for the market to recover.

the banks see that they're going to discount even more to get it off their books.

He's made it very clear, Kevin Walsh, that they're not going to do that [buy Mortgage Backed Securities].

between 500,000 to a million FHA borrows will be significantly affected by by those [SAVE] payment plans

you're probably talking about even higher default rates as a result of that [student loan repayments]

The US will follow Japan into a structural deflation trap — the Japan scenario is more probable than any hyperinflation outcome over the next decade