Luke Gromen

I have as high a conviction as I've had in my career that the dollar will be the release valve in 2025 — DXY weakens meaningfully as fiscal constraints prevent any other adjustment mechanism

Bitcoin will underperform gold in 2025 — gold is expressing the debasement trade more clearly; trimming BTC exposure

Central banks globally are abandoning US Treasuries in favour of gold — gold will overtake Treasuries as the dominant foreign central bank reserve asset by 2025

The Fed will be "forced to loosen into still elevated inflation at some point in 2023" — cannot sustain 5% Fed Funds rate on any sustained basis given US debt levels.

Gold "should eventually catch a bid" — central banks buying record amounts in Q3 2022 (~400 tonnes) despite the dollar spike is "really encouraging." Gold will outperform once markets realise inflation won't return to 2%.

A US recession combined with rising Treasury yields is "entirely possible" — a novel and dangerous scenario with no historical playbook.

"I could easily see [Bitcoin] being $100,000 a year from now, probably sooner" — stated in October 2021 with a Bitcoin ETF catalyst.

Inflation running at "eight to ten percent, maybe higher" in real terms in October 2021 — dismissing official CPI prints of 3–4% as understated.

The US needs "double digit inflation for probably five years" (~10–20% CPI per year for 4–5 years) to reduce US debt-to-GDP from ~120–130% to a sustainable ~70–80% without a hard default.

The Federal Reserve will implement yield curve control "some time later this year" (2021) — a "very slippery slope" toward corporate, mortgage, and junk bond curve control.

US real interest rates will decline from -1.1% (August 2020 trough) to "at a minimum, negative 5% and maybe on their way to negative 10% or more."

The US dollar index has begun a structural multi-year decline — since April 2020 the DXY has fallen approximately 7% in five months (15% annualised rate), and this dollar weakness will continue.

Gold broke above $1,380–$1,400 as a key technical level and will continue rising structurally as dollar reserve status erodes — overweight gold as fiscal crisis approaches within "probably well under 24 months."

US total true interest expense (interest plus entitlements) will hit 100% of tax receipts in 2021 under base case, or as early as mid-2020 in a slowdown scenario.

later this year, you're going to be looking at starvation across in parts of the in the poorest parts of the global south

My base case is [the Strait of Hormuz] is still closed in a month.

if Hormuz remains closed for another month... my expectation would be to see the whole thing [the curve] begin rising and that front end kind of remaining heavily backwardated.

we get much higher prices to any trade exposed regions of North America particularly the east and west coast.

initially probably a spike and then a fade followed by a gradual organic rise in prices at an even faster pace than if we just had our muse closed.

buy the January 2027 $87 call... call break even sits around 90 and a quarter.

for the next week or so Brent and WTI futures to continue to sell off... barring other factors, I think Brent and WTI have room to come further down.

the downside probably in my mind is only about another $10 drop

by year end we're going to be seeing yields heading lower through the economic implications of of this tight commodities market and the energy market.

there's like this 6-week complete stoppage of flow of crude oil into the whole rest of the world. That's going to happen no matter what.

something Japan can do, something Korea can do, something Germany can do... is, you know, do we print the money or do we not print the money and we just sell Treasury bonds and sell US dollar assets... And they're going to sell the bonds. they're going to sell the stocks.

It's going to blow up his own bond market because people aren't going to hold Treasury bonds and certainly not going to buy more of them.

The Americans are are going to have to print money. The Brits are going to have to print money... These places are going to have to print money to buy food. And... it's all going to be highly inflationary.

Hormuse stays closed the world economy is going to collapse like that is not a guess that is a mathematical physical certainty... if it stays closed long enough the world economy will absolutely 100% collapse

is the US government going to print money to pay for interest and entitlements or is the United States government going to default and miss a payment on entitlements and interest? And I think there is zero chance they do the latter. I think they're going to print the money.

I feel very confident that an oil spike and a food spike will drive a slowdown, if not a recession, particularly when married with higher rates and the disruption from supply chains.

I feel very strongly that that air pocket will send receipts below their interest and their entitlements.

Are we headed toward a US fiscal crisis that everybody was too complacent to see coming? In a word, yes.

tenure yields are going way lower I'm like sold to you they they aren't going lower. They're going way higher.

they're going to be spending the next two years of their lives dealing with impeachment hearings for Trump for the last two years because they'll lose the House and the Senate.

China has a way to force this dynamic in terms of cost on the bond market. And so, yeah, I think it is that's where I think it is going to further accelerate.

grocery store comps will accelerate. You know, it's nominal, but there's leverage there because it's a high fixed cost model, right? So, you grocery store should do well in a in a higher food inflation environment.

I think Bitcoin is going to follow it lower again if I'm correct about the the supply chain whoosh down.

the sanctions are going to be back on

you will likely see Iran begin to shut in its production... which would lift that 13 million barrels a day of shut in Gulf production from 13 to 15

the US is almost certain to never agree to [respect Iran's right to continue enriching uranium]

But if you don't make a deal, we're going to use our our Houthy friends to close the straight of Bob Elmande

the last tanker ship to successfully transit the Straight of Hormuz... won't reach its destination until next week

the flow of oil to the global market... supply disruption hasn't actually started yet. It's going to start probably next week and nothing can be done.

there's going to be a massive selloff as all of the macro tourists go from, you know, panic buying crude to shorting crude. So, I think WTI and Brent futures are going to be shorted here and pushed down substantially.

That's going to collapse the time spreads at the front of the curve.

about two to three weeks from now when that air pocket... hits Southeast Asia and Australia and New Zealand... there has to be an explosion of those time spreads at the front of the forward curve [in Singapore].

If Hormuz remains closed for another month... my expectation would be to see the whole thing begin rising and that front end kind of remaining heavily backwardated.

Initially probably a spike and then a fade followed by a gradual organic rise in prices at an even faster pace than if we just had horm closed.

for the next week or so Brent and WTI futures to continue to sell off absent more bad news that send them the other direction.

the downside probably in my mind is only about another $10 drop [in crude oil]

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a 3 to 5 day sequence where the market just absorbed this previous rally.

if there is a continued surge from this huge oversold condition in [MAG7 stocks] they have more than enough clout to be able to drive the S&P to new highs irrespective of the deteriorating macro and geopolitical conditions.

I'm still going to give the [dollar] bulls the benefit of the doubt that they're going to take this higher... over the next week or so

I wouldn't be surprised if gold retested its previous lows one more time just for one more quick wash out before we start getting into more bullish conditions maybe in the late second quarter if not in the third quarter of the year.

we might not see this market [uranium] really take off again until after American Labor Day as we get into the autumn

I actually think in the by year end we're going to be seeing yields heading lower

I'm not looking for uh yields to go much higher from here, maybe beyond retesting their highs from a few weeks ago.

we're going to be looking at double triple prices [for diesel fuel] especially in Asia Australia

you'd be talking about a blue wave probably in midterms this year

there's like this 6-week complete stoppage of flow of crude oil into the whole rest of the world that's going to happen no matter what.

is it my base case is still closed [Straight of Hormuz] in a month? Yes.

I think it's very possible this thing's [Straight of Hormuz] still closed on the 4th of July.

the people who need the diesel fuel most urgently, especially in Asia, Australia... We're going to be looking at double triple prices

you'd be talking about a blue wave probably in midterms this year

you get more food inflation, it's going to want to go through that 4.4% [US 10-year Treasury yield] on the upside like a hot knife through butter

The markets saying higher yields are not going to strengthen your currency Japan. They're going to weaken it because we know you can't afford a higher yield and you're going to have to print it.

The Americans are are going to have to print money. The Brits are going to have to print money... Turkey's a twin deficit nation. These places are going to have to print money to buy food. And it... will be highly inflationary.

that air pocket [slowdown] will send receipts below their interest and their entitlements

is the US government going to print money to pay for interest and entitlements or is the United States government going to default... I think there is zero chance they do the latter. I think they're going to print the money.

10-year yields ... aren't going lower, they're going way higher.

Are we headed toward a US fiscal crisis that everybody was too complacent to see coming? In a word, yes.

they'll lose the House and the Senate

grocery store comps will accelerate

Bitcoin is going to follow it lower again if I'm correct about the supply chain whoosh down

If this lasts say a week or two and Iran is not able to clear any oil, you will likely see Iran begin to shut in its production much like the rest of the Gulf states have which would lift that 13 million barrels a day of shutting Gulf production from 13 to 50.

it's just a matter of time until these largest supply shock in the history of the oil market does come to bear on prices and push them higher.

But if you don't make a deal, we're going to use our our Houthie friends to close this straight of Bob Elmande.

I think there is going to be an increase to actually try and exit some of those ships [trapped in the Gulf].

The supply disruption hasn't actually started yet. It's going to start probably next week and nothing can be done.

I think WTI and and Brent futures are going to be shorted here and pushed down substantially.

about two to three weeks from now when that air pocket that you've described hits Southeast Asia and Australia and New Zealand, I think that refineries in Singapore... there has to be an explosion of those time spreads at the front of the forward curve.

We're heading for a recession. It's almost guaranteed.

We'll be talking about doing this [oil] at 120.

monetization of the debt. That's absolutely what they'll be doing.

If you do get Treasury yields break out, if you do get illiquid markets, the Fed will step in as needed. They'll increase purchases.

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BitTensor will invent lock-based subnet ownership, specifically ownership of subnet determined by a team's long-term economic commitment.

Mission 70 targets a 70% reduction in ICP token inflation.

we're talking about three times worse stagflation than the 1970s.

it's likely we bleed down like Zcash did until that yield curve control moment happens.

what we can expect... is debt buybacks. Another term for debt buybacks is yield curve control.

ICP is way more likely to get deflationary in the next bull run.

SLR and some other restrictions [on commercial banks ability to hold treasuries]... That'll all get thrown out, Yeah. they'll just open it up and let them buy as much as they want.

gold is going to head towards 10,000... within... months on the first part of that.

bitcoin is going to head towards 400,000... within... years

The only thing that makes sense is a deal... I'm pretty sure this needs to be wrapped up before [the May 14th-15th China summit].

it [the next money print] will also lead to, you know, inflation... My sense is this one's going to be even worse [than the pandemic-era inflation].

I don't think we will [have a World War three].

we just get through this with a with a currency, with the dollar more or less effectively failing.

We are going to return to a Bitcoin standard and, and here's how we're going to do it. Or going to devalue all this debt and start over again.

my grandkids will be paying for things with Satoshis.

you're looking at a 7 to $10 trillion this time [in prints].

the fed buying... these assets and doing something that leads to a lot of unemployment.

Kevin Warsh will be fed chairman, you know, middle of next month.

He [Warsh] will have a... mechanism that allows them to inject more money into the system... effectively yield curve control... likely this year.

probably the timing is about perfect for, President Saylor in 2032.

I believe with very high certainty is that at some point they have to do another print. 3 trillion plus on the first one, 5 trillion plus on the second one. So this one's probably going to be seven, eight, nine, 10 trillion.

we're getting set up here for some kind of a peace deal in the next couple of days. And Trump's going to declare an enormous victory

May the 14th, [Xi Jinping] and Trump meet at the China summit. And I think that will mark the world order and this will be wrapped up and done by then.

I don't believe we're go into a catastrophic Great Depression and demand destruction to ruins the world for the next decade.

I don't believe we're going into genuine World War three

Netanyahu has been negotiating his exit, because there's likely to be he's going to be the fall guy. There will be a regime change.

what would happen to markets if a nuke is fired... I'm pretty sure we'd see everything down, you know, 75%, you know, almost immediately.

I think we're going to look back in 6 months, 12 months, 18, 24 months time, and we're going to say February 2026 was the equivalent of July 2007.

Elon is never going to get anywhere near cutting a trillion dollars.

Sometime in the next 6–12 months, we're going to see a consumer confidence level that is going to literally plummet — they'll have to create a negative line on the chart.

Unemployment rises from ~4.1–4.2% today to 5.5–6.0% as systemic leverage unwinds.

Bitcoin looks weak enough that a move toward the $40,000 range in H1 2026 is possible — the first half of next year is going to be ugly

Tariffs alone cannot solve the US trade deficit — the only real adjustment mechanism is a weaker dollar; tariffs without dollar weakening will trigger recession without fixing the deficit

IF the Fed is forced into a major liquidity injection or QE — Bitcoin could reach $500,000 (approximately 5x from ~$100k)

Gold price target of $7,000–$15,000 by 2030 — base case $10,100–$10,600 — as gold re-establishes itself as the dominant reserve asset collateralising foreign-held US debt

The Fed will eventually be forced to finance US deficits through QE or yield curve control — the Treasury market cannot clear at market rates given fiscal trajectory