Lyn Alden

A Mar-a-Lago Accord (coordinated dollar weakening agreement) is a possibility under Trump but current execution raises recession risk and may not achieve its goals

Bitcoin will end 2025 higher than its price at time of statement (~$85,000)

Bitcoin has a good chance of reclaiming $100,000 before end of 2025

US fiscal dominance means the Fed cannot sustainably fight inflation through rate hikes alone — deficits will continue to expand regardless of monetary policy

The US economy will be largely insensitive to Fed rate cuts — cuts will not meaningfully stimulate growth, similar to how hikes did not slow it

$100,000 Bitcoin would be a disappointing outcome for this bull market cycle — target is $200,000

Bitcoin's halving cycle will continue to produce a bull market peak in late 2025

The 2020s decade will see persistently higher average inflation than the 2010s driven by fiscal dominance — commodity price waves recurring throughout the decade analogous to the 1940s and 1970s.

The Fed will stop hiking before reaching 3% short-term interest rates and/or before $1 trillion is removed from the balance sheet — "something in financial markets will break" first.

US dollar will trend weaker in 2022 — "towards a weaker dollar in 2022" as a base case directional call.

Energy sector will be "a decent decade for oil and gas stocks" in the 2020s — oil underinvestment and supply tightening will drive relative outperformance.

The 2020s will be a "more inflationary environment than the 2010s" — her long-term base case for the decade.

Inflation will be "transitory in rate-of-change terms but not in absolute terms" — prices will not revert to pre-2021 levels even as the rate of increase moderates.

Bitcoin's blow-off top this cycle will be in the range of $120,000–$400,000, with a base case of "something like $200,000," likely extending to the second half of 2021.

Bitcoin has a "fairly high likelihood of outperforming precious metals from the current level through end of 2021."

Bitcoin purchased at ~$6,800–$9,500 in April–July 2020 will perform "very well over the next 2 years" as her base case.

The Fed balance sheet will end 2020 at $7–$8 trillion — "that might prove conservative."

The US fiscal deficit will reach at least $3 trillion in 2020, or roughly 15% of GDP — "the biggest deficit year as a percentage of GDP since World War II."

I still think Bitcoin is going to be a larger network. I I I don't think the $2 trillion market cap that it reached was the peak. I I think it'll go higher

I do think that this crisis will minimize over time one way or another. Um that at least much of that traffic will resume through the strait.

going forward over the next say 5 10 years... we're going to have ongoing large defense spending ongoing large entitlement spending. It'll be monetized where needed or absorbed by the private sector where possible and that'll keep spilling out into the economy, keep growing money supply

more of it [US Treasuries] has to be bought domestically.

I think we're going to see it [balance sheet consolidation] bottom out from other major central banks and go to gradual balance sheet increases.

over time we will continue to see inflation. It'll show up in what is scarce... you're going to get disproportionate price increases in response to all that money creation [in] the things we don't get much better at making [like Gold or Bitcoin].

AI should keep a lid on a lot of white collar services even though you have money supply growth... [it will] show up in just kind of white collar wages and white collar services staying relatively cheap despite the growth in money supply

I want to ramp up of needing these chips up to 900,000 a month by 2029.

the best we can hope for is just interest rates kind of chop around in a sideways pattern here — up and down during boom years and bust years. But we don't really have that structural decline anymore.

it's [childcare] only getting more expensive over time

you'll probably see a gradual shift a little bit more toward that multigenerational house

the broader trend as we have more kind of wealth concentration as we have more of this polarization that's happening uh unfortunately these things [domestic terrorist incidents] are likely to increase

Goldman Sachs says 5400

Morgan Stanley says 5,700

Deutsche Bank says $6,000

UBS says $6,200

JP Morgan Chase... assuming that gold will hit $6300 in 2026

This is going to be Mandami's rail... we're going to go back and look at this and... they're going to close it

I think these [NYC grocery stores] are going to come in with cost overruns just like almost that even even in the private sector that would happen let alone uh you know them doing it

The store that will be open next year in 2027 and the additional stores that will be open by the end of 2029

6,000 is a little bit above my estimate

And every place they go to [AI data centers], electricity prices goes up.

they're thinking is going to go to half a trillion dollars all across the state of Texas that they're building [AI data centers]

I want to ramp up of needing these chips up to 900,000 a month by 2029.

Multiple companies are saying by the end of the year [gold] is going to be $6,000

[One company] said [gold] is going to be $6,300 by the end of the year.

And by next year we'll have double that amount [of oil and gas production].

they committed to a AI data center that's hundred billion dollars that they're thinking is going to go to half a trillion dollars all across the state of Texas

over kind of a multi-year multi-deade period I think that that those things [cash and bonds] will continue to be devalued relative to to higher quality scarce assets.

over time we will continue to see inflation. It'll show up in what is scarce.

the robotics space ... I think that won't be super economically impactful within that 5year period.

I think it's less likely we see kind of just, you know, multi- like multi- trillion dollar accumulation of value in AI companies. And it's actually in some ways it I think it accrrews more toward the users and the businesses that are that are using these things

I think around the world I mean we're see we're going to see resumption basically of I called it the gradual print it's like slow debt monetization

I think we're going to see it [balance sheet consolidation] bottom out from other major central banks

we're re-entering a period of kind of gradual balance sheet increases, gradual money supply growth with which mean you know developed country upper single digit a year is typical and for many developing countries it'll be double digit

more of [government debt] has to be bought domestically

We appear to be going from 40 trillion today in total debt up about two trillion a year, maybe 50 trillion in half a decade.

going forward over the next say 5 10 years... I think we're going to have ongoing large defense spending ongoing large entitlement spending.

AI should keep a lid on a lot of white collar services even though you have money supply growth.

I think that basically there's more pressures against the deficit going down rather than we're going to get like a near-term explosion of the deficit. I just think it's going it's going to keep grinding higher.

I think that central banks, including the Fed, will use yield curve control as kind of a last resort, and that instead they'll use these softer methods, occasional balance sheet increases in line with nominal GDP growth

until you have see at say an end of the a light at the end of the tunnel of the straighter who moves crisis I think cash and short-term treasuries are one of the better riskadjusted assets someone could be in for a multi-month period

I think that there's a massive repricing of [software stocks] which is not over yet.

I just think [the US deficit is] going to keep grinding higher.

It's less likely we see multi-trillion dollar accumulation of value in AI companies and it's actually in some ways it I think it accrues more toward the users and the businesses.

one person can do the work of five people ... I think we'll see a similar thing in white collar work

If I had to bet Bitcoin versus gold over the next two to three years, I would bet Bitcoin.

The technical risk of quantum computing attacking Bitcoin is overblown on any investable time horizon — 3 to 5 to seven years.

We're not going to see one of those 85 or 90% drawdowns — that's my base case.

Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time in any 12-month period — this relationship will persist going forward

Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin within the next decade from 2024

IF the US bond market breaks and the Fed is forced into yield curve control or heavy QE — Bitcoin will reach significantly more optimistic price targets (well above $100k)

Gold will continue to perform well in a fiscal dominance environment — structurally bullish multi-year

Dollar will weaken on a structural multi-year basis due to fiscal dominance and twin deficits — emerging markets and hard assets will outperform dollar-denominated bonds

Bitcoin will outperform gold from 2024 through to 2029

Bitcoin is a deep value accumulation zone on a 3–5 year view from January 2023

US S&P 500 will deliver "weak total returns during the 2020s decade" from its starting valuation (CAPE ~31 in January 2020).