/ SuperForecaster

Michael Burry

44.4% weighted

Total predictions

20

Resolved

17

Weighted accuracy

44.4%

Simple accuracy

47.1%

Resolved 17 predictions

Prediction	Made	Resolved	Threshold	Oracle reading	Spec	Result
Scion Asset Management holds put options on 100,000 SOXX shares (~$47.4M notional) as of Q3 2023. Semiconductors are overvalued. article	14 Nov 2023	31 Dec 2023	Semiconductor sector (SOXX) will decline from current levels	SOXX returned +67% in 2023; rose ~6.5% from disclosure through November 2023 alone; Burry closed position in Q4 2023	2	✗
Scion Asset Management holds $1.6 billion notional in put options against SPY and QQQ as of Q2 2023. A significant market decline is coming. article	14 Aug 2023	31 Dec 2023	S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will decline significantly from mid-2023 levels	S&P 500 declined ~10% from late July peak to October 2023 lows before recovering; Burry closed all puts in Q3 2023	3	✗
The 2023 stock market rally is comparable to dot-com bubble relief rallies. It will not be sustained. twitter	08 Feb 2023	31 Dec 2023	S&P 500 2023 rally collapses; comparable to dot-com bear market relief rallies	S&P 500 returned +24.2% for full year 2023 — one of the strongest years of the decade	1	✗
Sell.	31 Jan 2023	30 Jun 2023	Stock market will decline from January 2023 levels; rally will not be sustained	S&P 500 rose ~17% from January 31 to end of Q2 2023; Burry later admitted he was "wrong to say sell"	1	✗
The US will fall into recession in 2023. CPI will go negative in H2 2023, then inflation will spike again.	02 Jan 2023	31 Dec 2023	US recession in 2023; CPI goes negative in H2 2023 then re-accelerates	No recession in 2023; CPI fell to ~3% in H2 2023 (not negative); no second inflation spike by end-2023	2	✗
Chinese tech stocks are materially undervalued at current levels. Scion is long Alibaba and JD.com. article	01 Dec 2022	31 Dec 2023	Alibaba and JD.com are undervalued; stocks will recover from lows	Alibaba and JD.com rose 30-50% from Q4 2022 lows through Burry's Q2 2023 exit	2	✓
Only 13.48% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average — compare 1.2% at the 2009 bottom and 2.8% at the 2020 bottom. The market has more room to fall.	01 Oct 2022	31 Dec 2022	S&P 500 makes new cycle low — current breadth implies further downside remains	S&P 500 made its cycle closing low on October 12 2022, approximately 10 days after the tweet	2	✓
The stock market has not hit bottom. There will be further declines from current levels. twitter	07 Sep 2022	30 Jun 2023	S&P 500 declines further from ~3,900 in September 2022	S&P 500 fell from ~3,900 in September 2022 to ~3,491 in October 2022 before recovering	1	✓
High inflation could last years. The Fed will not easily contain it. twitter	06 Jul 2022	30 Jun 2023	Inflation remains elevated for multiple years; not quickly contained by Fed	CPI peaked June 2022 and fell to ~4% by mid-2023 — not "years" of elevated inflation	1	✗
Inflation will decline in the second half of 2022 due to the bullwhip effect. Retailers are overstocked and will be forced to cut prices. twitter	27 Jun 2022	31 Dec 2022	CPI declines in H2 2022 due to retail inventory glut / bullwhip effect	CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and declined to ~6.5% by December 2022	2	✓
The S&P 500 will fall below 1,900. Historical pattern implies each successive bear market trough is 10-17% below the prior cycle low.	03 May 2022	31 Dec 2025	S&P 500 falls below 1,900 based on historical bear market trough progression	S&P 500 bottomed at ~3,491 in October 2022 — never approached 1,900; index has since traded above 5,000	3	✗
Inflation will be sustained and non-transitory. The Fed and Powell are wrong about inflation being temporary.	15 Jun 2021	30 Jun 2022	Inflation persists well above 2% Fed target; sustained not transitory	CPI climbed from ~5% in mid-2021 to a 9.1% peak in June 2022 — clearly sustained	1	✓
Weimar-style hyperinflation is coming to the United States. The 2010-2021 inflation gestation period is analogous to Weimar Germany 1914-1923.	21 Feb 2021	31 Dec 2023	US inflation spirals into hyperinflation — Weimar-style price collapse	US CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 — elevated but not hyperinflation; fell to ~3% by end of 2023	1	✗
Meme stocks, crypto, and SPAC leverage are fads analogous to housing in 2007 and fiber/.com in 1999. This will end in tears.	29 Jan 2021	31 Dec 2021	Meme stocks and crypto collapse; analogous to prior speculative bubble collapses	GME fell ~95% from January 2021 peak; most meme/SPAC stocks collapsed 80-90% through 2021-2022; Bitcoin fell ~70% from November 2021 peak	1	✓
The GameStop rally is unnatural, insane, and dangerous. There should be legal and regulatory repercussions. twitter	27 Jan 2021	30 Jun 2021	Regulatory intervention follows GameStop rally; rally collapses	GME fell from ~$483 peak on January 28 2021 to ~$40 by mid-February; SEC and Congress launched investigations	1	✓
The COVID market bottom is in around April 2020. Stocks will recover.	15 Apr 2020	31 Dec 2020	Stock market has bottomed near March-April 2020 lows; recovery ahead	S&P 500 bottomed March 23 2020 and recovered ~70% by year-end 2020	2	✓
Passive index fund investing has created a bubble analogous to subprime CDOs. The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was. This will end in forced, disorderly selling. article	28 Aug 2019	31 Dec 2022	Passive investing bubble causes forced, disorderly selling analogous to subprime CDO collapse	S&P 500 fell ~25% in 2022 but no passive-driven structural collapse occurred; market recovered normally	1	✗

Pending 3 predictions

Prediction	Made	Resolves	Threshold	Spec	Status
massive AI bubble about to burst youtube	17 Apr 2026	—	—	1	pending
By mid-2026, Adobe stock had dropped roughly 30%. youtube	17 Apr 2026	30 Jun 2026	30% drop	3	pending
Federal Reserve being forced to cut rates amidst broader market disarray [in 2026]. youtube If: Broader market disarray or macroeconomic headwinds pick up.	17 Apr 2026	31 Dec 2026	—	2	pending