Michael Howell

I think it [the market] rolls over and crashes before the election.

It's got real room to run here pretty much through the end of 2025 [referring to the bull market].

He [Michael Howell] thinks that yields will go up maybe as high as 5 5.25% by the end of the year.

we still are expecting to do rate cuts at some point in 2024

Bitcoin will see a 20-25% decline below trend following the Q3 2025 liquidity peak before eventually recovering.

The global liquidity cycle peak is expected late 2025. Investors should expect risk assets to peak near that time.

The Fed will begin cutting rates — first cut likely at or before the September 2024 FOMC meeting.

Fed rate cuts beginning September 2024 will drive global liquidity higher and push risk assets including Bitcoin and equities to new highs.

Based on the 65-month global liquidity cycle, the Global Liquidity Index will peak in Q3 2025 and then begin declining.

Gold price will continue rising, driven primarily by PBOC and Chinese private sector buying. Shanghai is now setting the marginal gold price, not Western central banks.

Gold and cryptocurrencies should enjoy a further extended bull market through 2024, driven by fiscal fragility and geopolitical uncertainties.

Expect uncoordinated but coincident monetary easing across major central banks through the rest of 2024.

April 2024 presents a near-term setback risk for markets due to large incoming US tax payments — but represents a buying opportunity.

40-45% of Bitcoin's price drivers are attributable to global liquidity. Bitcoin tracks global liquidity with approximately a 13-week lead.

Bitcoin has a beta sensitivity of approximately 3x gold against global liquidity moves. During liquidity upswings, Bitcoin will substantially outperform gold.

Bitcoin will reach new cycle highs in 2024, driven by the global liquidity rebound.

The global liquidity cycle will support Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs above $69,000 in 2024.

Expect a temporary and moderate pullback in the US dollar (DXY) during 2024.

Gold will reach new all-time highs in 2024.

Global stock prices will see further gains in 2024 — a relatively benign Rebound investment regime with wind behind investors.

Bitcoin has bottomed near $16,000 in early 2023. The global liquidity cycle analysis signals a new uptrend has commenced.

December 2022 is the global liquidity cycle trough. China and Japan are easing even as the Fed tightens. Risk assets including Bitcoin will recover into 2023 and 2024.

Global liquidity will recover as China and Japan ease even while the Fed tightens. Asset prices will recover.

Global liquidity... is slated to bottom sometime in 2027.

Our view has been that they [yield curves] would begin to flatten from about mid year [2026]

conservative year-end price targets set at $4,500 per ounce

I think the Bank of Japan, despite all the rhetoric about they're about to tighten, they're about to tighten, is going to keep keep the the money taps open.

I think the CBO numbers are conservative... they don't take into account another recession. And what we know in recessions is that debt jumps. So it's bound to be too low.

Fed liquidity... basically triples between now and 2034.

We think the trend on the US 10-year Treasury is easily going to test 5 and a 1/4%.

I've got this projection for the next 2 years of of liquidity still rising

debt to GDP to to maybe reach 250%... by 2050

this would have a measured move to up towards 2500 or so.

I believe we get a break out of this triangle and we get a pretty violent move up towards 30 on this asset [silver]

I can see GDX going right to maybe 33 34 in the next few weeks if we get some short covering and gold holds what it's doing.

Longer term, going back to the monthly chart, I think that GDX would be 45 plus if we hold 2500 on gold.

I do believe the Fed's not going to cut until we see an equity market crash.

I think the gold stocks... could easily double from here. If we move up towards 2500... the junior sectors could double from here easily.

forecast project $3,700 to $4,000 by mid-2026

potentially $5,000 plus if Fed independence is challenged and a wider shift from Treasuries accelerates

I could see GDX up 50 to 70%

an additional 1,000 tons, or 1/3 of all global spot supply, could be demanded by the end of 2026

rising bond yields could soon force yield curve control

this still marries with our end of year $4,500 target

it's only a matter of time before the long bond yield rises above 5%

the next immediate target is 44275

we expect 52 bucks, 53 in fact, or very close to 53 to be the secured as the next highest asset to rally from

triple-digit price of silver is a legitimate target

a long-term target of $4,000 for gold looks reasonable

It's still probably 12 to 24 months away before they officially come out and say, 'Okay, this is how we're going to trade among ourselves.'

they will heavily sanction or ban US silver exports, almost certainly

providing yet another catalyst to easily drive spot silver through all-time highs

I'm a big believer that short rates can fall, but long rates are only going to go higher.

The mining stocks... have many quarters ahead of just unbelievable legitimate printing money through free cash flow.

The majors... they're not going to try organic growth. They're just going to go out and buy.

gold and Bitcoin are going to benefit from this entrance of the Fed back into the market.

This is the global liquidity cycle XC China... It will likely bottom in 2027.

the growth in the Fed balance sheet does start to come down from what are currently very high rates [through the back end of 2026].

we're looking anyway for 2026 to be, you know, quite a big year in terms of demands on capital markets... pretty much a doubling from where we were in 25.

the targets have been set almost at 5,000 [yuan] intervals... I think that the next you know move [in yuan gold] will be upward strongly... 30 35 etc.

they're [the People's Bank of China] injecting at the rate of pretty near a trillion US dollars a year of extra stimulus... and I think they're going to have to do the same this year as they did last year.

The $64,000 question is not will the Federal Reserve come back in, it's when will the Federal Reserve come back in because it will.

the only thing the governments can do is to monetize the debt they've got. The power they have is to print money. And so what the real threat is is monetary inflation.

it's probably not sufficient to reverse the trend [of weakening liquidity conditions]

we reckon that every $10 on a barrel of oil probably reduces global liquidity by about 3%.

every 10 points on the move [index] probably as a rule of thumb will take about 4% of global liquidity.

it's almost a one for one move in terms of a 10% increase in the DXY. probably subtracts about 10% from global liquidity.

with heightened defense spending there's going to be even more bill issuance being undertaken

I would think this [liquidity expansion through bank deregulation] is much more likely to be a 27 event than a 26 event... look more to 27 as some sort of inflection point.

I'm sure that a lot of other countries I mean we're talking here really the Europeans would kind of come along with that idea [bank deregulation] too.

there's no way they could pair the balance sheet back seriously in the near future

by 2030 something like 45 trillion of debt in the advanced economies will need refinancing

What we start to see from 2025 and is going to continue through 26 through 30 is a much heightened annual increase in debt refinancing

we expected the yield curve to begin to flatten by the middle of this year.

I think the grains are going to get the same type move [as metals and energy]... I've got a target something like 31 [for DBA]

I think the odds the Fed's going to hike anytime soon is is super low.

if you've got the front end on hold... then you're going to get longer rates coming down.

oil prices, I said I think are going up.

the liquidity cycle is heading down. It's going to bottom in 2027

commodities, real assets I think is where you want to be rather than financial assets over the next 12 months.

I would think 80 to 85 bucks is as low as it's going to get under current conditions [for oil]

There's a triple bottom from last year at 92 bips. You take that out, this thing's going into the 60s [referring to 2s10s spread]

we are not going down to 4% again. The move down in rates is over

upside targets right now um without necessarily taking out the high at 5% are 4.69 and 4.84

I don't see likelihood at all that we're going to break 4.14%

right now 632 to 622 in spiders is probably some buyers will start showing up

end of the year... spy higher or lower? >> Lower.

end of the year... Gold higher or lower? >> Higher.

we've peaked in the liquidity cycle. That liquidity cycle is coming down.

end of the year... Mag 7. Uh, black to down.

end of the year... oil. >> Probably higher.

I think markets could fall 20 25%

I think they're going to have to wait or pause on that [interest rate cuts] until there's harder evidence if they ever do cut.

tech is out completely because that's early cycle... financials, you know, are not going to do well in this environment.

Energy I still think looks really good... miners should do well.

they're going to have to inject another trillion [in liquidity] I think this year.

I reckon that [the yuan gold price] is going up. And I think they're targeting that progressively.

That's why I think gold is going up a lot more because you got two big buyers

therefore oil must go up on my reckoning

you've got underlying inflation, which is more likely to be in the 5 to 6% range than the sort of 2 to 3% range that we've been used to

I think inevitably contend condemns risk assets to go in a southernly direction again

There's just there's going to be, I think, extreme dispersion here... long energy, short mag 7 as an example. All right? You know, long uh gold miner, short software.

what you've got here is probably a low point sometime in 2027. So, you know, we're we're, you know, a year away, I think, from some sort of bottom... the cycle is likely to hit a low point in 27.

DXY has got to go up. Um and then if you start to look at other factors... dollar should be uh you know should be absolutely smashing the euro right now.

over the next 12 months what's going to do better Bitcoin or gold... I'd have more confidence in gold for the simple reason that the main driver as far as I can see is is China.

3 months from now, the discussion is going to be how much rates have to go up

oil prices higher for longer

unless the Fed's going to start doing QE again like I the long end rate should you know be I think substantially higher

I would say the curve flattens. It may even invert

the likelihood of it [oil spike] being as inflationary as anything we saw in 2022 is, I think, pretty poultry because you don't have all that stimulus.

the barrel of oil is going to $250. Okay? Now, not overnight, we've gotta say, but that may be the equilibrium.

Chinese markets actually hold up a lot better ... than Western financial markets.

Is this bull market over? I think it probably is.

central banks are gonna have to push rates up.

inflation is clearly picking up there [Japan], and we'll pick up more because of higher oil prices

the Gulf States will likely to be big participants [in] these sort of mega deals... in coming months

China's just going to continue with this policy that they're nowhere near stopping yet? Yeah, they're, and they, they put a trillion US dollars into their markets last year. They're gonna have to do the same again, in my view.

It [gold] sure ain't going back to $2,000 an ounce

oil at over a hundred and it may be a lot higher than that

this is gonna be a big inflationary hit for 2027.

if you look at it on paper and you ex you extrapolate those trends forwards, you're looking at something like a 25% drop in liquidity.

central banks. They're gonna have to tighten... you've effectively got to raise interest rates.

The Bitcoin cycle trough is expected in 2027. Central banks will resume expansion at that point, driving the next Bitcoin bull run.

The global liquidity downcycle will persist through 2027, suppressing risk assets including Bitcoin. The trough arrives in 2027 when central banks resume expansion.

Gold will reach $3,600 per ounce, driven by PBOC buying, Chinese gold reserve revaluation, and a looming liquidity crisis.

Bitcoin will hit $250,000 over the next three to five years as faith dwindles in the US Treasury market.