Raoul Pal

heading into 2026, all of a sudden, commodities start ripping, oil starts going up, gold.

I think this is more likely where it peaks into January. We've got many charts that suggest it's like Jan, even Feb where it peaks.

Altcoin season is coming in 2025 — altcoins will significantly outperform Bitcoin as the cycle matures

Bitcoin will be between $250,000 and $400,000 by March/April 2025 — cycle wraps up at that level based on liquidity and halving models

Bitcoin will not enter a traditional four-year halving bear market in 2022 — the cycle has "changed" due to institutional adoption; supercycle thesis implies BTC will not fall below prior cycle ATH (~$20K).

Ethereum will "for sure" surpass Bitcoin in market capitalisation (the "Flippening") — possibly within the current market cycle before it turns bear.

Bitcoin will reach $1 million "no question" by the end of the Exponential Age adoption cycle — stated alongside prediction BTC would go from 150M to 1 billion users by 2024.

Bitcoin will be between $250,000 and $400,000 by March 2022 at the latest — "a very normal rally for the year end" would be 5x from $60K.

Ethereum will reach $20,000 by end of 2021 "at the latest" — modelled on mapping ETH's trajectory to BTC's 2017 chart.

Institutional money will propel Bitcoin above $250,000 within one year — worst case $150,000, best case north of $250,000.

Bitcoin will surpass its previous all-time high of $20,000 by early 2021 — "early next year at the latest."

Bitcoin will reach $1 million within five years, driven by institutional adoption and network S-curve growth.

The COVID-19 economic crisis will be "the biggest insolvency event in history" — the worst recession since the Great Depression; history's most serious economic shock.

A recession is coming — bond markets are "screaming" deflation and recession; recommends "Buy Bonds. Buy Dollars." as the trade.

the lows are in for the year.

global liquidity... looking like it's going to go back to all-time highs.

By 2028, it [AI output] will have surpassed the entire corpus of human writing.

expect the Federal Reserve to when push comes to shove, turn on that money printer. And when they really go full yield curve control... that's when the bull market starts.

most likely scenario for crypto... we're entering the period of a potential crab market.

once full yield curve control goes, expect that 20x in these assets.

I think we still need a massive flash crash to get to kick the Fed's butt into action.

we can expect kind of anemic activity... until we get full low on yield curve control.

Michael How thinks it's a short-term pump followed by a crash

In the near future, there may not just be billions of humans using blockchains. There could be billions of artificial intelligence agents transacting across them every second.

All data is going to be converted into a token... We're going to have vast token marketplaces because the agents will need data.

I think we're close to the bottom [for Ethereum]

the next expansion phase may arrive faster and grow larger than previous cycles.

The recent wave of capitulation and frustration across the crypto space is not a warning sign of deeper downside. It is historically one of the strongest signals that a major bottom is already forming and that Bitcoin has consistently delivered V-shaped recoveries once sentiment reaches this level of pessimism.

The whole investment management business is going to wildly change. Hedge fund pods can be agents or individuals because you can tokenize individuals. It collapses the entire cost base of the asset managers.

AI is going to create more value than the internet, than industrialization, maybe than agriculture.

The 21st century economy is going to split into two layers. The first layer is everything that can be replicated, automated, scaled, priced, traded. AI eats this layer completely. Software, content, analysis, customer service, code, design, all of it becomes commodity. Priced at marginal cost, which approaches zero.

What you're building is going to happen everywhere... 8 billion people are going to discover that this kind of relationship is possible.

The PBOC is going to be stepping on the gas — and when it peaks, it peaks in 2026.

It peaks in Jan, Feb — then trades sideways into April or so and then goes higher again.

In 12 months time, we're still not at the peak of the business cycle.

Eventually, you know, April, May — as ever, it [Bitcoin] explodes higher again.

The Bitcoin 4-year cycle has stretched into a 5-year cycle — real cycle peak will be in 2026, not 2025

Bitcoin will hit $250,000 in this cycle — currency debasement and institutional adoption create inevitable path to that level

Ethereum will reach $15,000–$20,000 within the next 18 months from late 2024